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Thread: Economy yet again...

  1. #1

    Exclamation Economy yet again...

    I hope by now everyone is safely positioned with substantial debt reductions, a good store of gold and cash, and very little exposure to the stock market (unless shorting it) as we are pretty much at the 'event horizon' point now.

    Expect to see the S&P somewhere in the mid 700's before too long, and property to come off another 30% over the next three years.

    Keep safe, keep calm, and keep everything spread between many banks and many safety deposit boxes.
    Andrew Macpherson

    Expert Z8 Inspections, with full support for both Z8 sale and purchases.

  2. #2
    Z8Mania
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    Thanks Andrew. I can't disagree but do you see specific things that point you this way? I just think we are likely to be constrained like we were from ~1976-1982.

  3. #3
    So many things in so many places, but these are some of the best.

    If you want to keep a daily read going I'd sign up for the newsletters from these three sites, they are all excellent.

    My favorite morning read is Dave Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff's excellent morning report, you can subscribe here.

    Yves Smith's daily read from nakedcapitalism is both broad in vision and ideas.

    Simon Johnson's Baseline Scenario keeps you in touch with the Washington-Wall St situation.

    Last, but not least, if you are much of an addict as I, Zero Hedge constantly exposes all that's mad and bad in finance.
    Andrew Macpherson

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  4. #4
    Z8Mania
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    Thanks Andrew. Hard to refute whats going on. I think on a slightly longer term view, we had 6 years of badness from 1976-82 but then we went on a massive run. So I would caution from becoming too pessimistic.

  5. #5
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    Market Gyrations?

    Still think the recovery is ahead of us. Europe seems to be taking some of the wind from the sails at this moment. Luckily the US consumes most our own goods and Asia is picking up some of the slack. As of now the US is still in a recovery even though it looks decreasingly vigorous. Believe this is a correction and not the early warning of something worse. Though we will have a much better idea in a few weeks as we go through earnings season. Should things be worse might take defensive actions. Should the S&P break 1000 it would be a sign that things are most likely getting worse.

  6. #6
    Z8 Millennial Monster hayvenhurstkid's Avatar
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    The DOW stayed between 800 and 1,000 from 1966 to 1982. I completely agree with Andrew. The "lost decade" that Japan experienced in the 1990's, which, in reality, is still going on, is now upon us. I think we are in for a big drop and then years of going nowhere. I don't want any part of the stock market. It is all about safety and capital preservation. Maybe your returns on cash will be very small, but better a small return than a 50% or more loss!
    Marty

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  7. #7

    Very fun view of the crisis...

    Andrew Macpherson

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  8. #8
    Z8Mania
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    What if they enact an onerous luxury tax that will go on things like high line cars- that will drag values down, no?

  9. #9
    I think that it will be new cars that will get hammered, and the downsizing that started with the original Mini and Fiat 500, and is now Smart, new Mini etc will become the new norm. I seriously expect China to be the first country to enact serious taxes on luxury cars, as their budding car companies are all massively investing in electric tech. It is my feeling that the Z8 and the current crop of super-sports cars could be the end of the line of automotive excess. Super sports and track cars will go the way of the Lotus, Caterham and KTM X-Bow, little, light, nimble and very able, but not powerful like the Viper, which actually ends production this month.

    The kids of tomorrow will most likely scowl at our gas guzzlers, our love of speed, and the open road, but I then guess not many folks today would be that impressed with a rail system of smoke belching steam locomotives, but they sure were splendid machines in their time! I have to confess despite their mess I still love 'em too! They just built a brand new one in the UK, here it is doing its main line tests.



    Andrew Macpherson

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  10. #10
    Z8Mania
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    I think there will always be a place in peoples hearts for sports cars. Its not the sports cars that are the problem really. Its the mass adoption of massive SUVs.

  11. #11
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    I too agree with Andrew. Just where will this supposed recovery come from. The government has pumped a trillion dollars, printed or borrowed, into this economy with absolutely nothing to show for it but an expanding public sector. I feel fairly certain we are headed for a period of deflation followed by escalating inflation. I would also stress; get rid of debt, and stay in cash, commodities and real estate.
    I also think that as the transportation evolution continues and fuel/energy economy becomes paramount, the current crop of supercars will become more sought after.

  12. #12

    This is long...

    but if you want a pretty honest view of where we are it does bear reading...

    http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/w...PaperFinal.pdf
    Andrew Macpherson

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  13. #13
    Z8 Millennial Monster hayvenhurstkid's Avatar
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    So I may be going out on a limb here and possibly have to eat my words, but I am predicting the DOW will be at 7,500 or lower by the end of the year. Way too much bad news out there, the European debt issue is still a crisis, unemployment is still at record high levels, GNP is dropping, and on and on. Here comes round two, which may be as bad or worse than 2008's round one. I hope I am wrong, but I don't think so.
    P.S I would buy an ETF that shorts the DOW. That you will make money on.
    Marty

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  14. #14
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    I would disagree on some points. September 2008 was as close as you could possibly come to a complete melt down of the global financial system and survive. Even one more day in mid September and it was all over. At that point I felt the best the world could do was adjust to the "new normal" that you hear PIMCO talk about. In other words the leverage/consumption party was over and the debt hangover was setting in, therefore consumption even if employment levels stayed constant was going down and all you could ask was a smooth transition to the new normal instead of dropping off of a cliff. The worst case scenario was a global depression. With that at the two possible outcomes I would say that while the global governments, and the US in particular, have made some mistakes along the last two years, and unemployment is still unacceptably high, it has been about as good of an outcome to date that could have been hoped for. So while I disagree that the ride has any chance of being worse then 2008 for the economy, I do agree that the equity markets have been too optimistic and the next big move will be down for the year.

  15. #15
    Team Z8 riverflyer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hayvenhurstkid View Post
    So I may be going out on a limb here and possibly have to eat my words, but I am predicting the DOW will be at 7,500 or lower by the end of the year. Way too much bad news out there, the European debt issue is still a crisis, unemployment is still at record high levels, GNP is dropping, and on and on. Here comes round two, which may be as bad or worse than 2008's round one. I hope I am wrong, but I don't think so.
    P.S I would buy an ETF that shorts the DOW. That you will make money on.
    Is there an etf for that specific purpose that you know of? I agree, might be a good move.

  16. #16
    Team Z8 riverflyer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by macfly View Post
    I hope by now everyone is safely positioned with substantial debt reductions, a good store of gold and cash, and very little exposure to the stock market (unless shorting it) as we are pretty much at the 'event horizon' point now.

    Expect to see the S&P somewhere in the mid 700's before too long, and property to come off another 30% over the next three years.

    Keep safe, keep calm, and keep everything spread between many banks and many safety deposit boxes.
    How do you feel about silver?

  17. #17
    ETF's can be very tricky, but I use the very fast moving FAS & FAZ pair depending on direction. I also have some silver, but all commodities are very vulnerable to depreciation in a deflationary cycle, but they can help bridge the 'gap' in the event of a total collapse of the fiat currency system.

    With the rules of the fractional reserve banking system now running at 30 to 1 on the retail level the insanity in our fiat system has gone too far. A bank, any bank, can lend you $30 for every $1 it has taken as a deposit, the other $29 it just 'magics' out of thin air because the banking cartel that is the Fed/Treasury/Wall St/Washington mafia says it's ok to do so. The truth is that that money only exists because you borrowed it, it was created for the sole purpose of your debt. It isn't real money, it wasn't generated by any work, or trade or worth, it was just entered into a ledger, and presto, there it is! They used to call that usury, and it used to be a crime, but now it is simply the scam the IMF, World Bank Rothschild/Rockerfeller mafia are using to steal the sovereignty from every country, this one included, to create their hideous 'New World Order' where the bankers take all.

    The banksters have truly become the enemy of the people, and it is time for change, real change, not the kind of change the joke of a financial reform bill was. It was diluted to irrelevance by a legion of lobbyists wielding billions of dollars at the corrupt politicians. The shame and the sham was that the declawed and de-toothed wet squib of a dead bill was then trumpeted as a 'triumph for the people' by the press that's owned by GE, Murdoch and other Bilderberg members devoted to the Rhodes/Collectivism dream.

    That dream turns all of us in debt enslaved powerless drones, and gives more and more power to the overlords and their corporate fascist police state.

    Skull & Bones anyone?
    Andrew Macpherson

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  18. #18
    Z8 Millennial Monster hayvenhurstkid's Avatar
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    Very well said Andrew and unfortunately for all of us, very true.
    Marty

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  19. #19
    Z8 Addict Z8doc's Avatar
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    so what would you recommend one do with their 401K? Withdrawal amounts to substantial penalty? Push all into the bond market for now to minimize fluctuation and loss but little or no growth?
    Best Regards,

    Jeff
    61995 Silver /// Rot - Original Owner
    Z8 Club of Germany e.V. #102

  20. #20
    If you have a strong individual plan that you manage I would seriously consider talking to several fund managers, and getting their take on what they perceive to be happening, and what they intend to do about it, both if they are right and if they are wrong. I would also make sure that David Rosenberg's team was on your call list.

    Right now bonds are not really any better than being in cash, but the downside is they are vulnerable to inflation shocks, so I would be a little careful with them. Again, I would seek the advice of several experts of the highest level because while I can perceive the dangers present, and the possibilities of an unravelling of the worlds fiat based debt laden currencies, it doesn't mean it will happen.

    There are also some serious wild cards like the Iran/Israel situation, the bigger badder Icelandic volcano that always errupts after the small one, and the very real possibility that we'll loose enough of the artic sea ice to stall the Gulf Stream. This years summer melt has already broken every record. Any of those could change everything in a heartbeat.

    There is a lot plan for, and there is sure to be higher taxes too. It ain't pretty, but it's what we have to deal with, so knowledge really is power.
    Andrew Macpherson

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  21. #21
    Team Z8 ZMates's Avatar
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    I'm staying firmly out of this discussion, but just wanted to add two observations:

    1) I hear lots of conspiracy theories about the financial system...not just on this discussion group, but I have never personally met anyone who works within the finance industry who would take these things seriously.

    2) Regarding the lending of 30 dollars for every one dollar of deposits, this is a commonly held belief but 100% incorrect. A 30:1 reserve ratio figure means that banks can only lend out 29 dollars for every 30 dollars they take as deposits.

    That said, I'm also very pessimistic about the US economy. It will take at least 10 years to absorb the excess supply of houses built over the last two decades.

  22. #22
    Definately don't want to draw you into this, but on 1.) it was actually someone who headed the top team on the Goldman Sachs LatAm Debt desk who started my whole fascination with all this back when I lived in NYC in the mid nineties. He who started me on this long journey of learning about finance, its history and cultural importance, including the formation of the Fed. On 2.) the 30:1 fractional reserve banking, this is something I have read so many times I take it as a given, but can't say I have seen it at work, so I am just retelling what I have read. Here are some of my key sources...

    Much of the work I've read has been from the Von Mises Institue of Austrian School Economics, where Murray Rothbard has several excellent, easy to read books on fractional reserve banking, the Fed and of course the case against Keynes.

    William Gradier's book on the Fed, The Secrets of the Temple is a great read.

    On the history and ownership of the Fed Edward Griffin's The Creature from Jekyll Island is a must read.

    Great background on those who work at the top level of government and international finance can be read in Danny Estulin's The True Story of the Bilderberg Group.

    Also you can hear much of this combined viewpoint echoed daily at the excellent ZeroHedge blog.

    If you have the time and inclination to read some new stuff I'd love to hear your thoughts on those. One can only learn by taking in information that is available, and more than anyone I am never attached to any position, except learning. The truth I have found is ever changing, and wisdom is embracing those changes.
    Andrew Macpherson

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  23. #23
    Z8 Millennial Monster hayvenhurstkid's Avatar
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    If you are looking for a bond fund to park some of your money in, I would take a look at MINT from PIMCO, which is the largest bond trading company in the world. It is run by Bill Gross who is very highly respected in the financial world. It is a micro managed short term bond fund that only buys the best bonds available that also have a one year or less date to maturity. You won't make a lot on it, but the return should be better than a CD and it trades as an ETF. So, you have complete liquidity in case interest rates start going up but a better return while you are waiting. It is currently trading at around $100.53 a share. I bought a bunch of it when the fund started last year at $100 a share. It pays out around a .6% dividend too. Just a little diversity in my SEP IRA without any real risk. When interest rates start to go up, which will happen in the future, then I will move out of this and hopefully back into some decent CD's returning 4 to 5%. As I stated earlier, I am not looking for big gains, just don't want to suffer big losses.
    Marty

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  24. #24
    On the subject of 'conspiracy' this story out today is an absolute must read! For those that don't get to the bottom of the story this single quote it ends with is well worth reading...

    The following gave me concern when I first read it many years ago and something for you to think about:

    "...the powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent private meetings and conferences. The apex of the system was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations."

    Professor Carroll Quigley
    Tragedy and Hope: A History of the World in Our Time (1966)
    President Bill Clinton?s Georgetown Professor


    and back to me, Prof Quigley is a champion of the Rhodes school of Collectivism, so that he should be saying this you can be sure it is something to take note of.
    Andrew Macpherson

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  25. #25
    Team Z8 ZMates's Avatar
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    Hi Andrew,

    regarding the reserving: think of it this way:

    1) the government prints one dollar and uses it to pay my father for all the hard work he does at the FTC.

    2) My father deposits that dollar in his bank account

    Bank Balance Sheet:
    Assets: 1 dollar in cash
    Liabilities: 1 dollar in client deposits

    of the 1 dollar in assets, the bank deposits 10 cents with the federal reserve (10% reserve ratio) and the bank is free to lend out the remaining 90 cents

    3) bank lends 90 cents to my mother

    Bank Baance Sheet:
    Assets: 90 cents in loans, 10 cents cash deposit with fed
    Liabilities: 1 dollar in client deposits

    4) my mother spends her 90 cents to by a snickers bar and the store owner then deposits the 90 cents in the bank. the bank deposits 9 cents with the fed and ends out the remaining 81 cents

    Bank Balance Sheet:
    Assets: 1.71 dollars in loans, 19 cents in cash deposit with fed
    Liabilities: 1.90 in client deposits

    5) this cycle repeats itself an infinite number of times

    Bank Balance Sheet:
    Assets: 9 dollars in loans, 1 dollar in deposits with the fed
    Liabilities: 10 dollars in client deposits

    so for every one dollar printed by the fed, 10 dollars of money supply is created. However, banks are only lending out 9 dollars compared to 10 dollars of deposits.

    regarding consipracy theories: maybe conspiracy is not the right word to use. I'm just saying that in my experience, these things are not something that people in the business spend a lot of time worrying about. Doesn't mean it's not true, though.

    all the best, John

  26. #26
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    Hi Andrew,
    Per your suggestion I reviewed the Zero Hedge blog. Did you happen to notice that they (BIS) recently swapped 14 B for approx 340 metric tons of gold. Blog dated today.

  27. #27
    John, thanks for the the clarification.

    skicoach, yes, that story is the one I linked to above, it is a very revealing read, and also a rather scary one!
    Andrew Macpherson

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  28. #28
    Z8 Addict Scott Pettit's Avatar
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    Who, on this forum, have invested in T bills and what do you think of that route for investing?
    Scott Pettit
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  29. #29
    Z8 Millennial Monster hayvenhurstkid's Avatar
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    I used to but you can find better interest rates on FDIC insured CD's. While T bills are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. Government, CD's are FDIC insured and no one has ever lost a penny in an FDIC insured account since its inception. That said, I guess if the U.S. were ever to default on its debt, then none of any of it will really matter much. It is a very unpleasant thought and one I hope never comes true, but someday in the future, it isn't completely out of the realm of possibility.
    Marty

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  30. #30

    Well it looks like we are becoming legion....

    Andrew Macpherson

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  31. #31
    Z8 Madness
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    George was an amazingly insightful man. Loved his shows and had the chance to see him a few times live.

    Thanks for sharing.
    2016 Porsche GTS/MT

  32. #32
    Z8Mania
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    I dont notice nor care when Im behind the wheel of the Z8.

    I think there is a lot of truth here but I also think you can't overly generalize. There is a danger in that.

  33. #33

    HELP! Where to invest $400k?

    I have $400 k in a collateral brokerage account supporting an equal loan for my business.

    I need to offset the interest on the loan which based on LIBOR +.5% or roughly 2.8%. And still maintain some liquidity, so as I pay down the loan I can free up some of the collateral account dollars to reinvest in business growth.

    The bank recommends bond funds or a "Sage" professionally managed Fixed income account. Bonds, even short term, seems counter intuitive when my main concern is mitigating interest rate increases and maintaining principle.
    Does anybody have any recommendations?
    _________
    Andy Lytle
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  34. #34
    Yes, honestly I do. My most favored daily newsletter for the last year comes from an investment advisor called David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff. http://www.gluskinsheff.com/

    He has by far the most level headed, well informed and clear perspective on our global and national situations, and in your position he would absolutely be my first and only call.
    Andrew Macpherson

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  35. #35
    Z8 Addict Z8doc's Avatar
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    Sound familiar?

    I was doing some reading and came across this description on causes of the French Revolution on Wikipedia--- substitute America for France / French and whatever American politician "du juor" you want for the French ones and put our current war in there too and it sounds strikingly familiar to present day America.

    Pre-revolution

    Financial crisis
    Louis XVI ascended to the throne amidst a financial crisis; the nation was nearing bankruptcy and outlays outpaced income.[5] This was because of France?s financial obligations stemming from involvement in the Seven Years War and its participation in the American Revolutionary War.[6] In May 1776, finance minister Turgot was dismissed, after he lost favor. The next year, Jacques Necker, a foreigner, was appointed Director-General of Finance. He was not made a minister because he was a Protestant, and could not become a naturalized French citizen.[7] Necker realized that the country's tax system, which was perceived as quite regressive, subjected some to an unfair burden;[7] numerous exemptions existed for the nobility and clergy.[8] He argued that the country could not be taxed higher, that tax exemptions for the nobility and clergy should be removed, and proposed that borrowing would solve the country's fiscal problems. Necker published a report to support this claim that underestimated the deficit by roughly 36,000 livres, and proposed restricting the spending power of the parlements. This was not received well by the King's ministers and Necker, hoping to solidify his position, argued to be accepted as a minister. The King refused, Necker was fired, and Charles Alexandre de Calonne was appointed to the Directorship.[7] Calonne initially spent liberally, but he quickly realized the critical financial situation and put forth a new tax code.[9] The proposal included a consistent land tax, which would include taxation of the nobility and clergy. ..... (We all know it from there, Taxes and more Taxes on everyone -- a revolution occurred and wiped everyone in power out and redistributed the wealth)
    Best Regards,

    Jeff
    61995 Silver /// Rot - Original Owner
    Z8 Club of Germany e.V. #102

  36. #36
    I think we could well end up with a revolutionary mindset, but unfortunately those in power are all to ready for this. Sadly I expect a very severe wave of iron fist fascism much as happened in Germany in the 1920's after the collapse of the Wiemar Republic. The banksters who do have all the money will continue to bribe Washington to do thier bidding, but will soon start spending massively on security. They will take over financing of the police, the military, and they already own Blackwater, Haliburton and all the other sinister shadow Gestapos.

    This are very dark times, and I suspect they are going to get a lot darker before we see the return of the 'good days'.
    Andrew Macpherson

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  37. #37
    Z8 Millennial Monster hayvenhurstkid's Avatar
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    It is definately ugly out there. They say the recession ended a year ago June. Really??? I deal with a fairly recession proof group of people out here in LA and my business is way off. Again, I hope I am wrong, but this rally in the DOW has no sound fundamentals backing it up. Unemployment is still near 10%, GDP is fairly stagnant, and countries all over the world are in debt to the point they may never get out of it without defaulting. It just doesn't feel good out there now. I think the DOW bubble will pop soon and we will see historic lows. Now is the time to tighten your belts and I think stealth wealth is the way to go. There are so many people struggling just to make it day to day that showing wealth is probably not a great idea these days. I agree with Andrew that we will not see a revolution, but we will definately see more unrest. I watched a program on cable last night about Goldman Sachs and how the firm made massive profits during the financial crisis. Most of you are probably already aware of this story, but they were selling their best clients mortgage backed securities that they knew would fail and then placed massive bets against them by way of synthetic CDO's and made billions of dollars when the MBS's failed.And this was after taking a ten billion taxpayer bailout!! Talk about a conflict of interest!! All of the Goldman Sachs executives they interviewed said they saw nothing wrong with what they did. And you wonder why the average guy has lost faith in Wall Street and the Government in general.
    Marty

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  38. #38
    Z8 Madness
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    Quote Originally Posted by hayvenhurstkid View Post
    There are so many people struggling just to make it day to day that showing wealth is probably not a great idea these days.
    That is such a true statement. We have friends and family in our network that are struggling. It is a sad situation.

    A southern california firm that I work with had a recent job opening for an electronics technician. They received 500 applications in two weeks -- most over qualified. Their HR department didn't know how to deal with it. The same company was having a hard time finding talent a few years back.

    I sure hope Wall Street knows something we don't because I really don't see what the party is all about.
    2016 Porsche GTS/MT

  39. #39
    Sport Button On - DSC Off raka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sawbones View Post
    ... The bank recommends bond funds or a "Sage" professionally managed Fixed income account. Bonds, even short term, seems counter intuitive when my main concern is mitigating interest rate increases and maintaining principle.
    Does anybody have any recommendations?
    i see Buffett just came out strongly against bonds.

    "It's quite clear that stocks are cheaper than bonds. I can't imagine anybody having bonds in their portfolio when they can own equities, a diversified group of equities."

    sidenote: unfortunately WB has become more self-serving in his comments the past few years when siding with bankers (due to his large holdings in that industry). even his side-kick Munger recently said the suffering little people (that would be us, non-billionaires, should just "suck it in & cope")

    the only safe vehicle i know of to protect your principle, even in the face of inflation, would be TIPS because it has a component to adjust for inflation. this is for keeping assets safe, not to make any meaningful gain. and you want recently-issued intermediate term TIPS to provide some deflation protection as well.

    disclaimer: just an area to perhaps look into, since i'm not qualified to provide financial advice

  40. #40
    Z8 Millennial Monster hayvenhurstkid's Avatar
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    I used to have a lot more respect for Buffett than I do now. I know he is a patriot, but he also has to do well for the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway stock. Even if he felt stocks were not a good place to put money at this time he would never say so due to the negative impact it would have on all of his holdings. I bet if we got a look at his balance sheet I would be willing to bet he is moving towards a much larger hoard of cash than in the past. Just a feeling I have. Many large corporations "Apple, Microsoft, Oracle" are sitting on vast sums of cash and are either using some to buy out other companies or are being pressured by shareholders to pay some out in the form of dividends. The fact that so much cash is still sitting on the sidelines tells me something is fundamentally wrong with the DOW.
    Marty

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  41. #41
    Z8 Addict Z8doc's Avatar
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    I listened to a segment of the Broadcast of the Commonwealth club of California yesterday and they had many guests from various political and financial sectors including the previous chief accountant for the government accountability office under the Bush Administration. He stated that currently, if you add all of the USA's debt together, including Medicare / Medicaid promises, our current Debt is 90% of our current GDP. The only other country in the world with this much debt to GDP is Greece.

    If we do not do some serious slashing of expenditures and shrink the size of government NOW, it will be even more painful in the future.
    Best Regards,

    Jeff
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  42. #42
    Z8Mania
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    I think whats powering the stock market is increased productivity- the problem is we've more or less maxed that out. And then we have class warfare. Wheres the growth?

  43. #43
    Z8 Addict Z8doc's Avatar
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    Seems all news reporting and policies are meant to boost up Wall street to "ease investor concern" and hence, wall street profits while none of the Gov. policy had helped the actual job growth and hence, hovers around 9.6% without an end in site as our labor markets are priced way above competing countries to make the USA attractive for businesses (including our own US based companies as they continue to outsource greater amounts of work to China, India, Southeast Asia, Mexico and Brazil). The exceptions are for businesses that see the US as the end destination for sales (or service related industry or maybe the entertainment industry but even that has a serious growing treat from Bollywood and China).
    Best Regards,

    Jeff
    61995 Silver /// Rot - Original Owner
    Z8 Club of Germany e.V. #102

  44. #44
    I thought this a well reasoned short piece...
    Andrew Macpherson

    Expert Z8 Inspections, with full support for both Z8 sale and purchases.

  45. #45
    By the way, last weeks insider trader was 1500 > 1 selling vs buying, signaling we are getting very close to a major bear market rally top, and the next wave down is going to be very powerful, so stay in cash, and stay safely on the sidelines - any gain you could make now is not worth the risk of the enormous loses that could come in the next few weeks.

    This is a time to preserve above all else, and don't go chasing bonds or yields, they have always backfired in times like this. Just stay in cash.

    If you own gold and silver be aware that these are also ending parabolic rises. Hold them for the long term, but be aware that they could loose a lot of value in the short term. If you want to load up on precious metal wait for the upcoming pull back to give you a better entry point.

    The dollar could be about to start a very strong run, it usually does when it hits 99% of traders feel bearish about it as they did last week, so equally it is not a good time to buy any foreign notes or currencies. Again it is a good time to stay in cash, and on the sidelines. At worst you'll loose a few percentage points if markets drift higher, but the worldwide soverign debt situation is likely to deal the markets a harsh surprise this autumn, returning us to the as yet unfinished bear market decline.

    Safety first!
    Andrew Macpherson

    Expert Z8 Inspections, with full support for both Z8 sale and purchases.

  46. #46
    Z8Mania
    Guest
    Good find Andrew.

  47. #47
    Z8 Addict Z8doc's Avatar
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    Aaauugghh.....

    Damn bankers.... See the article referencing record banking bonuses in the "recession"
    Banking bonuses
    Best Regards,

    Jeff
    61995 Silver /// Rot - Original Owner
    Z8 Club of Germany e.V. #102