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Thread: Economy 2010

  1. #1

    Economy 2010

    You may have been gently lulled into thinking all is well by the strength of the bear market bounce, and the sort of ok news about the economy for the last several months, but as you all know I spend several hours a day reading on the subject, and I am pretty convinced that we are about to experience a really harsh double dip.

    It could be starting right now, or could be when Greece and Spain default on their debts, but it is coming.

    All in all we have higher taxes, higher interest rates, falling production and all manner of other ugly debt overhangs in private, corporate and government sectors, heading our way this year.

    Please make very sure your long term finances are safely out of the way of the wild cards the stock market and the bond market could be dealing over the next twelve months. Be safe, be cautious, and spread things around so the collapse of any one part of the system won't affect you badly.

    Hold on tight, and good luck.
    Andrew Macpherson

    Expert Z8 Inspections, with full support for both Z8 sale and purchases.

  2. #2
    Z8Mania
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    Thanks Andrew. Job losses are worse than the govt initially said and also have a look at how NYS' MTA tried raising a payroll tax on employers (I have been paying this absurd tax) and it came up hundreds of millions short of what they projected because of unemployment spiking and also people simply leaving the state. You can't tax your way out of bad times, what did Churchill say about that? We contend that for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle.

    I don't know if this is the double dip or other side of the W but I agree caution is warranted.

  3. #3
    Administrator thegunguy's Avatar
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    Great quote.

    I always like his "Never, never, never quit".
    thegunguy

  4. #4
    Z8Mania
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    And of course when I say that, the unemployment goes below 10%. Thats great news. Now lets see, if I say the opposite of what will happen then, I say the stock market will crash!

  5. #5
    Andrew Macpherson

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  6. #6
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    i agree with the current sentiment. the trend was broken a few weeks ago and that trend began back in march. i run a private equity fund and have aggressively moved out of most of our long positions with the recent rally. still waiting on confirmation that this is headed south until then i'm not putting new money to work. active mgt will be very key here...

  7. #7
    Z8Mania
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    What happens when a Treasury auction fails? I would have thought that near impossible but I am hearing its actually a lot closer to reality than we would like to believe...

    Heres a fun video to make you feel warm and fuzzy

    http://www.thinkbigworksmall.com/myp.../23088/1004815

  8. #8
    Thank you so much for sharing that video, everyone needs to see it.
    Andrew Macpherson

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  9. #9
    Team Z8 KenZ8's Avatar
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    So now that we've seen it and our blood pressure has spiked, what can the individual do other than vote every sitting politician out of office?

  10. #10
    Z8Mania
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    Ken you said it right there. My new voting method is really simple. If you're a Democrat- you're out. If you're an incumbent, you're out. I'm voting strictly pocketbook. The problem IMHO is the career bureaucrats. We can't change them, but we can change the elected officials, and they can change the career bureaucrats. I just voted in a local special election. And in a strongly Democratic area the GOP won handily. What does this mean? For Dems and incumbents, 2010 is going to make 94 look like a warm up.

  11. #11
    I have to admit I have become quite a fan of Ron Paul. I'm sad to admit I voted for Obama because I didn't think that the Libertarians stood a chance last time, and I was suckered by the flowery rhetoric.

    Now I can see he is just the paid servant of the GS/Fed mafia, and we have seen no change anywhere of any value or consequence I'm going outside what I have come to see as the two party Punch & Judy show. Their business is selling lies while they look after the big campaign spenders and doing nothing for us.

    Rep Inc. = military, pharmaceuticals, insurance & oil
    Dem Inc. = banking mafia, legal system, unions

    Now it is time for a real change, we need to rescue this great country from those who have stolen from us in a terrible silent coup.
    Andrew Macpherson

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  12. #12
    Z8Mania
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    GOP and DEMs are simply too beholden to established interests- you're talking about degrees I think. So with the GOP in power, Halliburton wins. With the Dems in power Soros wins. GS wins with both.

    I don't think theres much things will change. Theres a big school of thought that says its the Council on Foreign Relations that really controls everything.

    My take on Obama is he reminds me of Bush- someone who is likable, but who gets pushed around by his advisors. So with Bush you got a more right wing tilt. With Obama its more left wing. I have a friend who had him as a law professor. She is extremely liberal and she said he is so much more liberal than she is that she couldn't vote for him and was frightened by him. I think his voting record was there (what little of it there was) but "we" fell in love with him and just like falling in love you sometimes overlook the facts to see the image you want and that's what happened here. Now we are waking up after a night of fun to discover "she's" not quite what we thought she was. The good news about buyers remorse in the US is there will be another election and if we are still unhappy we can vote him out. I won't say I told you so, because I never said anything here, but my take on him was the country was absolutely nuts to vote for him. Of course McCain did such a bad job of campaigning that you have to wonder if he would have been any more effective. I don't think our economy would be much better off but at least we wouldn't be seen as weak and dithering, running around and bowing to everyone so they can love us. They don't, and they won't unless we get our act together. They will respect that. But its super easy to write this, to be the critic. Its so difficult to be the one who tries to make things happen. So I will give him credit for going out there and trying.

  13. #13
    I agree totally, being in that chair where you are so beholden to the Rockerfellers must be hard. The Bushes have worked for them for three generations, Prescott Bush even taking the fall for doing business with the enemy during WW2, when the bank he was running for them was caught doing deals with the Nazi's financiers. Nice people!

    Anyhow the Rockerfellers are still the majority shareholders of the Fed (NY Fed). They funded and run the Council on Foreign Relations, the Trilateral Commission and the Bilderberg Club. They donated the land to the UN to get it started, and created the dictum of the New World Order, where the banks(ters) rule the world. Reading Kissinger's biography is accidentally illuminating on this, but more so is Danny Estulin's excellent Bilderberg book.

    I didn't vote for McCain because I found it both repulsive and scandalous that a man who was one of the Keating five, fully implicated in the S&L scam that robbed thousands of our elderly citizens, and then went on to champion the very deregulation that let these bankster lunatics destroy our economy while scamming all our money, was not in jail, and was actually being championed, with that Alaska nincompoop, as leader of the free world!

    Bush was shameful enough, but I really didn't want a criminal and a moron as my leaders.
    Andrew Macpherson

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  14. #14
    Z8Mania
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    Great points Andrew. All valid

  15. #15
    Sport Button On - DSC Off raka's Avatar
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  16. #16
    Great overview of the situation, a real must read.
    Andrew Macpherson

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  17. #17

    This is just incredible!

    The Goldman Sachs alum squirms as he tries to cover the crime of the century.

    Andrew Macpherson

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  18. #18
    Freedom Ouray's Avatar
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    The book "Too Big to Fail" by Andrew Sorkin is a very good recount of what transpired during 2008, at least the best one that I have found so far. Reading the book you should get a pretty good feel for how close the entire banking industry came to freezing upduring September and October, and it was close. I vividly remember what a beautiful September day it was in NY as I was running across town for a meeting related to the market meltdown and commenting to my coworker how all of the people on the crowded streets had no idea that their worlds had just changed dramatically as the era of easy credit was over and it was time to pay the piper. The forces of creative destruction that capitalism is known for are brutal if you are unfortunate enough to be caught in the process. When it is the entire banking system that is under attack the end game would have made the great depression look like the minor leagues if coordinated steps had not been taken. So while there is plenty of blame to go around, and there will be winners and losers that come out of this sad chapter in our history, the steps that were taken during those months were for the common good of the country. Monday morning quarterbacks, and politicians will always question the steps taken, but under the intense time pressures that existed the majority of the steps that were taken served the purpose of settling the markets and leaving sufficient intuitions in place to keep the economy alive until the hangover of the credit boom could be worked out over the upcoming years.
    Wall Street enabled the addiction to easy money that swept the developed world, but the addict also shares some responsibility for not saying no to the elixir offered to them.

  19. #19
    Z8 Addict Z8doc's Avatar
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    I agree but...

    the Enlightened Visionary Men who penned these words I am sure are rolling in their graves with this mess and state of this country......

    "When in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with one another and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

    We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all Men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are LIfe, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness. That to secure these Rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the Governed, -- That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying it'd foundation on such principles and organizing it's powers in such form, as to them shall seem most like to effect their Safety and Happines."


    It goes on to offer the solution too....

    "But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their Right, it is their Duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security."

    The Constitution that followed gives the means and hence, I agree with Andrew ... Vote them ALL OUT in 2010 and that includes getting rid of the Fed Bosses next presidential cycle. Power back to the people!!
    Best Regards,

    Jeff
    61995 Silver /// Rot - Original Owner
    Z8 Club of Germany e.V. #102

  20. #20
    Z8 Addict Z8doc's Avatar
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    History does Repeat itself....

    In the late 19th Century and early 20th century, Argentina was one of the fastest growing and richest countries in the world. While Great Britain 's maritime power and it's far-flung empire had propelled GB to a dominant position among the world's industrialized nations, only the United States challenged Argentina for the position of the world's second-most powerful economy.


    Argentina was blessed with abundant agriculture, vast swaths of rich farmland laced with navigable rivers and an accessible port system. Its level of industrialization was higher than many European countries: railroads, automobiles and telephones were commonplace.


    In 1916, a new president was elected. Hip?lito Irigoyen, formed a party called The Radicals under the banner of "fundamental change" with an appeal to the middle class. "Fundamental change,"

    (Hmmmm! NOW WHERE DID I HEAR THAT?)


    Among Irigoyen's changes: mandatory pension insurance, mandatory health insurance, and support for low-income housing construction to stimulate the economy. Put simply, the state assumed economic control of a vast swath of the country's operations and began assessing new payroll taxes to fund its efforts. (SOUND FAMILIAR?)


    With an increasing flow of funds into these entitlement programs, the government's payouts soon became overly generous. Before long its outlays surpassed the value of the taxpayers' contributions. Put simply, it quickly became under-funded, much like our Social Security and Medicare programs.


    The death knell for the Argentine economy, however, came with the election of Juan Per?n. Per?n had a fascist and corporatist upbringing; he and his charismatic wife aimed their populist rhetoric at the nation's rich.

    (AGAIN SOUND FAMILIAR?)


    This targeted group "swiftly expanded to cover most of the propertied middle classes, who became an enemy to be defeated and humiliated."


    Under Per?n, the size of government bureaucracies exploded through massive programs of social spending and by encouraging the growth of labor unions.

    (ARE WE BEGINNING TO SEE THE LIGHT )


    High taxes and economic mismanagement took their inevitable toll even after Per?n had been driven from office. But his populist rhetoric and "contempt for economic realities" lived on. Argentina's federal government continued to spend far beyond its means.

    (WE KNOW THAT CAN'T HAPPEN IN OUR COUNTRY, RIGHT? )


    Hyperinflation exploded in 1989, the final stage of a process characterized by "industrial protectionism, redistribution of income based on increased wages, and growing state intervention in the economy..."


    The Argentinean government's practice of printing money to pay off its public debts, crushed the economy. Inflation hit 3000%, reminiscent of the Weimar Republic . Food riots were rampant; stores were looted; the country descended into chaos.


    By 1994, Argentina 's public pensions -- the equivalent of Social Security -- had imploded. The payroll tax had increased from 5% to 26%, but it wasn't enough. In addition, Argentina had implemented a value-added tax (VAT), new income taxes, a personal tax on wealth, and additional revenues based upon the sale of public enterprises. These crushed the private sector, further damaging the economy.

    (ONLY HAPPENS IN OTHER COUNTRIES, CERTAINLY NOT OURS!??)

    A government-controlled "privatization" effort to rescue seniors' pensions was attempted. INSTEAD, by 2001, those funds had also been raided by the government, the monies replaced by Argentina 's defaulted government bonds. ( Hmmmmm! )


    By 2002, "...government fiscal irresponsibility... induced a national economic crisis as severe as America 's Great Depression." (Nah, that won't happen again. Our Politicians are too smart)


    We've seen this movie before. The politician's populist plans NEVER work, because power corrupts and government bankrupts everything it touches. For those that will listen, history shouts over and over that we cannot sustain the wild spending andgovernment takeover of business, banking, health care, and continue to inflate unfunded entitlement programs! Like history tells us, it will be an utter and complete disaster!!!


    Today's politicians are guilty of more than arrogant stupidity; they are enslaving future generations to poverty and misery. And they will be long gone when it all implodes. They will be as cold and dead as Juan Per?n when your children and grand children must ultimately pay for the blind arrogance of politicians!


    The author, Vytautas ,is a 60 year old dad of six small children.

    He is interested in theology, home based businesses, self-sufficiency, and personal freedom.


    THINK AMERICA! WE ARE ALLOWING POLITICIANS TO REPEAT THE FAILURES OF HISTORY!

    PS... while working America cuts back... Congress just increased government expenditures by 12% in the "Omnibus" spending bill of nearly half a TRILLION!

    Last year there was ONE person in the Dept. of Transportation making over $170,000! This year that Dept. has 1690 people making over $170,000! Is your company, or ANY company, doing that well? AND, this bill has 5224 earmarks totaling $4,000,000,000!

    The U.S. unfunded mandates including Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and the National Debt Now exceed 59 TRILLION DOLLARS.

    Vote them ALL OUT in 2010!
    Best Regards,

    Jeff
    61995 Silver /// Rot - Original Owner
    Z8 Club of Germany e.V. #102

  21. #21
    It is time, that is for sure. I just wish we had the right voice, a leader without Rothchild or Rockerfeller backing, and that will be hard to find.

    I know I have brought it up many times, but understanding how, and by who, the Fed was formed is the key to understanding everything that is going on now.

    Andrew Macpherson

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  22. #22
    Z8 Addict Z8doc's Avatar
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    Hmmm...

    Why don't you run for Pelosi's seat in the senate?
    Best Regards,

    Jeff
    61995 Silver /// Rot - Original Owner
    Z8 Club of Germany e.V. #102

  23. #23
    Freedom Ouray's Avatar
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    Do not get me wrong, I am a fan of the concepts put forth in Atlas Shrugged, Ouray is the valley on which Galt's Gulch was modeled, I just do not believe in total anarchy which is where doing nothing in 2008 would have led the world. I agree that it is time for a 94' style election results where the incumbents get shown the door.

  24. #24
    I do agree with you, but I also now believe that the 'system' saved itself at our expense. The more I read about all this the more I see it as a legalized looting of public funds, that will be followed by years of recession in which the worth of the middle class will be completely devastated by the now 'Too Big To Fail'. The loans for many of the nation mortgages have been bundled and sold on at around 70.c on the $, yet the banks are still busy foreclosing and raping the people while claiming the tax breaks for failed mortgages, then foreclosing, and selling on, making huge profits at the expense of the people.

    The behavior of the banking system is beyond shameful.

    Greed has run amok, at the people are being crushed. I believe we are seriously living in a time of great evil, and at its core is the Federal Reserve System.
    Andrew Macpherson

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  25. #25
    Freedom Ouray's Avatar
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    Going back to my postings in the fall of 2008 and taking some liberties with the line from Atlas Shrugged, what were all of the borrowers who took out the loans counting on to pay them off? The lack of personal responsibility for individuals decisions is shocking. Learned early on that living life below ones means is the root to financial success. So while everyone wants to blame someone else for their troubles, remember that the person who borrowed more then they could afford is not innocent in the current mess.

  26. #26
    I absolutely agree that the junkie must take equal responsibility with the pusher.

    However in this instance, rather like the CIA's importation if cocaine to fund the Iran Contra war flooding America with crack, the blame for loans widely made available on high street lies far above the stratosphere of both junkie and pusher.

    It was George Bush himself who pushed out the 'noble' idea of home ownership for all. This really was just a grand way of saying 'deeper debt for all'. It was, if you will, almost a royal decree. Add to that the scandalous deregulation of Wall St being pushed by McCain etc, at the behest of Greenspan, Goldman, Morgan etc, and it is clear to see this whole thing was a terrible set up. A trap to ensnare and rape the American people instigated at the very highest levels.

    Now who does George Bush take his orders from? Like his daddy, and grand daddy, he works for the Rockerfellers, who are the principal family behind Chase Manhatten, and of course the NY Fed.

    I really believe that this entire bust was a set up at the highest levels, just as it was in the late 1920's. The result of all this will be the big banks get bigger and more entrenched, the collective power base will become more unassailable, and the people will get broken and destroyed.

    If ever there was a time for a Great American Revolution, it is now.
    Andrew Macpherson

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  27. #27
    Freedom Ouray's Avatar
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    If you want to single out a single politician who pushed home affordability/ownership for all you really need to focus on Barney Frank in the 1990's and not George Bush in the 2000's. Mr. Frank's finger prints are all over Freddie and Fannie support, more dirt then any other politician on this front in my opinion. Who he is motivated by I have no idea, but he truly is the Mr. Teflon of the current generation.

  28. #28
    Z8 Addict Z8doc's Avatar
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    Although I agree that George Bush I and 2 and their administrations have their own culpability in this mess, the housing bubble was a culmination of many different people in government going all the way back to the Truman administration and continued by Eisenhauer as that is when the "idea" of the "great american Dream" of individual home ownership was born. The programs were seriously expanded by the Sociali...er, i mean "progressive" JFK, LBJ, Nixon, Carter, Reagan and seriously expanded in the first few years of the Clinton Administration. There were "attempts' to curtail the housing bubble but this indirect entitlement program with relaxation of federal banking regulations and the pushing of federally backed home loans to people who really could not afford it buy the real estate industry as a whole was a political hot potato for all the politicians, Dem or Rep, and hence, no one was willing to touch it. I believe a read somewhere that last presidential election that the National Association of Home Builders' donated to the presidential and congressional re-elections a year ago in the millions of dollars. And now with the latest Supreme court decision allowing businesses to donate as much as they want to the political campaigns, it is going to get worse, again, at the expense of those of us who are fiscally responsible.
    Best Regards,

    Jeff
    61995 Silver /// Rot - Original Owner
    Z8 Club of Germany e.V. #102

  29. #29
    Great points both. It is becoming clearer and clearer to understand what has happened, why, by who, but I have no inkling for how we can clean this terrible mess up, and save our nation fro the terrible consequences of this failing financial system.
    Andrew Macpherson

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  30. #30
    Andrew Macpherson

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  31. #31
    As President Theodore Roosevelt once declared in a situation much like our current crisis, ?Corporation cunning has developed faster than the law of nation or state. Corporations have found ways to steal long before we have found that they were susceptible to punishment for theft. But sooner or later, unless there is a season of readjustment, there will come a riotous, wicked, murderous day of atonement?. These fools on Wall Street think that they can go on forever! They can?t!?

    It is hard to face the fact that we have been so taken advantage of and abandoned by the very people we supported and had put our hope and faith into. Americans need to understand that Obama, along with most of the Democrats and Republicans are not looking out for our best interests.

    This is a pretty chilling documentary, annoyingly broken into 9 parts, but well worth watching.

    Andrew Macpherson

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  32. #32
    These two must watch short videos from the General Accounting Office were made before this crisis in 2007, so you can only imagine what the situation is now!






    --------------------------

    Andrew Macpherson

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  33. #33
    Z8 Addict Z8doc's Avatar
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    excellent but sadly true.
    Best Regards,

    Jeff
    61995 Silver /// Rot - Original Owner
    Z8 Club of Germany e.V. #102

  34. #34

    I never thought I'd read such a thing in my lifetime...

    Jim Rogers, Chairman of Rogers Holdings, has once again made a bold prediction and that is the British Pound could quite possibly collapse within the coming weeks.

    Jim Rogers, co-founder of the Quantum Fund and founder of the Rogers Commodities Index, was quoted in a recent press release that the United Kingdom Pound is on the brink of utter collapse, which could happen within the coming weeks and there is nothing governments can do about it.

    Rogers, making statements prior to delivering a keynote speech at next month?s Global Trading Day seminar in Westminster, believes the collapse of the Pound could foreshadow a global economic disintegration before the end of the year. The last few months of increases in the markets have been a ?false bounce? and occurred due to government interference in the market and throwing everything at it except for the kitchen sink.

    ?But it can?t last. We?ve been applying temporary sticking plasters, not long-term cures. Later this year we?ll see the start of the real recession, with more Lehman-scale disasters and a fallout which won?t stop until the underlying malaise is genuinely cured,? said Rogers.

    The author of ?Hot Commodities? believes the beginning of the collapse of the UK will start with the Pound, adding that the Pound has devalued against all other currencies and is a ?basket case,? which will put Great Britain in a bad position when the ?shakedown? occurs.
    Andrew Macpherson

    Expert Z8 Inspections, with full support for both Z8 sale and purchases.

  35. #35

    A fantastic podcast...

    This is so well worth an hour of your time, here Terrence McNally interviews Nobel Prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz on the economy.
    http://archive.kpfk.org/parchive/mp3...0freeforum.MP3
    Andrew Macpherson

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  36. #36
    Z8 Addict Z8doc's Avatar
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    Andrew, fantastic to listen to. Thanks for posting. I have read a few things of Joseph Stiglitz and generally agree with all that was mentioned on the pod cast but disappointed that both the moderator (McNalley) and Stiglitz still seemed to see the world in the Democratic vs Republican Blame game. Funny that both blame Bush for all of it, gloss over any culpability of the Obama administrations role in "maintaining the Bush Fed policy" and give no blame to the Clinton administration (even though they mention the first "warning shot" that occured with the big hedge fund in 1998 (Clinton years) that failed. The bankers (the fed and Goldman Sachs) got the then Secretary of the Treasury replaced and even got congress to pass a law that forbid the regulation of the Credit default swaps (Barney Frank & Co) the moderator and Stiglitz don't seem to assess any blame to Congress.

    As you know, it is readily apparent that there are still 3 branches of government but just reorganized -- the Main one is Federal Reserve, who is the puppeteer for the other two branches - the Democratic party and the other being the Republican party -- and they manipulate whichever is elected. That is clear based on how Bush catered to what his republican party wanted in Congress just as Obama is catering to the wishes of the Democratic party when the framers of the constitution intended the 3 branches to fight with and work with each other to ensure the common good.

    The now deposed Chariman Congressman Rangle of New York expressed it best as to the Allegiance that he has (and realistically shared by most of Washington regardless of party), he said just the other day when asked about his resignation"....I love the Committee (House Ways and Means that he was Chairman of), I love my country (I assume he is talking about the USA), but I love my Democrats more....). Are you kidding? He loves his Democratic Party more than his country? That is one of the biggest problems in Washington as it is clearly representative that ALL the politicians love themselves and their parties more than the ones they supposedly represent. A change is definitely in order next election, hopefully with people that will wrangle in the Fed and get our country back on track.
    Best Regards,

    Jeff
    61995 Silver /// Rot - Original Owner
    Z8 Club of Germany e.V. #102

  37. #37
    As long as we have the Fed, and all the other special interest sponsors of division in Washington we have no hope of unity against those that really are oppressing us now.
    Andrew Macpherson

    Expert Z8 Inspections, with full support for both Z8 sale and purchases.

  38. #38

    Great post by one of my favs today...

    Andrew Macpherson

    Expert Z8 Inspections, with full support for both Z8 sale and purchases.

  39. #39
    Z8Mania
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    Great finds guys- thats a lot to watch and take in. Unfortunately, I have the time to do it. I was playing Tennis last week and I was running to hit the ball and I felt a pop in my right calf muscle. It wasnt too painful, just real awkward. Luckily I have not damaged my Achilles tendon, what I did, though, is strain where the Achilles tendon attaches to my calf muscle. I am on crutches and in an air cast for 2-3 weeks, then I have 2-3 weeks of physical therapy in front of me and then I have maybe another 2-3 weeks of building up more strength on my own before I can go 100% on it. The good news is this is not that serious, I consider myself lucky, and I will get back to 100%. The bad news is, this is just really frustrating. I took a few days off from doing anything but now Im back in my office and driving my car- though performance driving is out of the question because that requires much faster foot work and I can't do that now. Ive been using the auto park feature on the 7- its come in handy. Anyway I need to take it real easy for the next few weeks. Who knew tennis was so dangerous!

  40. #40
    Get better fast, and enjoy the chill time!
    Andrew Macpherson

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  41. #41
    Team Z8 KenZ8's Avatar
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    I have yet to see anyone injured while having a beer and watching the car auctions on the Speed channel. If not a new permanent sport for you, it is a good way to recover.

    I hope you're feeling better soon. If I lived a bit closer, I'd offer to exercise your stable while you recover

  42. #42

    A great read from a former Treasury insider...

    IS THE RECOVERY REAL? | Paul Craig Roberts

    Happy news! The government has come up with a 5.9 percent GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2009. The recession is over.

    Or is it? Statistician John Williams has informed us that 69 percent of this growth, or 4.1 percentage points, is the result of inventory accumulation. That leaves a 1.8 percent growth rate, and the 1.8 percent is likely due to the underestimate of inflation and other statistical problems.

    The Federal Reserve?s own monetary evidence contradicts the recovery assurances from Fed chairman Ben Bernanke. The Federal Reserve continues to pour massive reserves into the banks. The monetary base, which consists of currency in circulation and bank reserves (the basis for new loans), has surged from $850 billion in 2009 to $2.2 trillion on February 24.

    Despite this potential for massive new money creation, the broadest measure of money growth is still contracting. The banks are too impaired and so are consumers for the banks to create new money by making loans.

    The economy, in other words, is going nowhere.

    As I have emphasized for years, an economy that moves its high productivity, high value-added jobs offshore is going nowhere but down. Except for the super-rich, there has been no growth in people?s incomes for a decade. To substitute for the missing income growth, consumers took on more debt. The growth in consumer debt kept the economy going. However, most consumers have now reached their maximum debt load, and millions went beyond their limit, resulting in foreclosures and lost homes.

    There are no jobs to which people can be called back to work. The jobs have been given to the Chinese and Indians.

    The economy is set for a "double-dip," that is, renewed decline. This, of course, means larger federal, state, and local budget deficits. The U.S. federal deficit is now so large that it can no longer be financed by the trade surpluses of China, Japan, and OPEC.

    Currently the deficit is being financed by deterioration in the Federal Reserve?s balance sheet. The Fed is creating new reserves for the banks (thus the surge in the monetary base) in exchange for the bank?s toxic financial instruments. The banks are using the reserves to purchase Treasury debt instead of making new loans. This makes money for the banks, but does not grow the economy or create jobs for the millions of unemployed.

    According to reports, recent auctions of Treasury debt have not gone well. China, America?s biggest creditor, has reduced its participation and is even selling some of its existing holdings. Whenever all of a new Treasury debt offering is not taken, the Federal Reserve buys the remainder. This results in debt monetization. The Fed pays for the bonds by creating new checking accounts for the Treasury, in other words, by printing money.

    On February 24, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress that the U.S. faced a serious debt crisis and that the Fed was not going to print money in order to pay the government?s bills. In fact, Bernanke would have no choice but to print money.

    Bernanke?s warning to Congress is his way of adding Federal Reserve pressure to that of Wall Street and former Treasury Secretary Paulson for Congress to balance the budget by gutting Social Security and Medicare. In case you haven?t noticed, no one in Washington or New York talks about cutting trillion dollar wars or trillion dollar handouts to rich bankers. They only talk about taking things away from little people. It is not the Bush/Cheney, Obama, neocon wars that are in the cross hairs; it is Social Security and Medicare.

    Other Obama economic officials, such as White House economist Larry Summers, a former Treasury secretary, have called for a middle class tax increase. The problem with this "solution" is that a good part of the middle class is now jobless and homeless.

    Money will have to be found somewhere if the Fed is to avoid printing it. During the Clinton administration a Treasury official proposed a 15 percent capital levy on all private pensions to make up for their tax deferral status. This idea didn?t fly, but today a desperate government, which has wasted $3 trillion invading countries that pose no danger to the U.S. and wasted more trillions of dollars combatting a crisis brought on by the government?s failure to regulate the financial sector, is likely to steal people?s pensions as well as to gut Social Security and Medicare.

    The reason is that the dollar?s role as reserve currency is at stake. If the Federal Reserve has to monetize the federal deficit, the world will turn its back on a rapidly depreciating dollar. The minute the dollar loses the reserve currency role, the U.S. can no longer pay its bills in its own currency, and its days as a superpower come to a sudden end. Wars can?t be financed, and Washington?s pursuit of world hegemony will hit a brick wall.

    The power-mad denizens of DC will do anything to further the expansion of their world empire.

    Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury during President Reagan?s first term.
    Andrew Macpherson

    Expert Z8 Inspections, with full support for both Z8 sale and purchases.

  43. #43
    Z8 Addict Z8doc's Avatar
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    Jan 2004
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    absolutely correct. We are headed for crisis. The feds already raided the Social Security Trust piggy bank in the 1960s and now, the last piggy bank left standing is all the tax deferred 401K and Pension funds we have. Rest assured though, big labor union pensions will not be touched given their recent "imbedded status" with the government and all the special deals made. It will be "average Joe's" 401k that will be raided for the capital.
    Best Regards,

    Jeff
    61995 Silver /// Rot - Original Owner
    Z8 Club of Germany e.V. #102